GPCD Trend with Peak Demand Overlay

A 10-year view of average and peak-day per-capita demand, projected forward against the utility's stated Water Conservation Plan goals.

Real data. City of Pearland's average GPCD and peak-day per-capita demand are actual reported figures from the Houston WWCP platform deployment.

Current Avg GPCD

120

2025 reporting year

Peak-Day GPCD

218

Reported peak-day figure

Peak-to-Average Gap

+98

Infrastructure must serve the peak

10-Year Trend

-1.67/yr

GPCD declining

Per-Capita Demand: History & 10-Year Projection

Solid = reported history. Dashed = projection. Shaded band = projection uncertainty cone. ◆ = stated WCP goals.

Reading the projection. The solid line is the single most-likely GPCD path if current trends hold — eased over time, since the easy conservation wins happen first. The shaded cone is the range of plausible outcomes, not a second forecast: it widens the further out we look, and its width is set by how much City of Pearland's use has bounced around year-to-year (steady histories get a narrow cone, volatile ones a wide one). The ◆ markers are the utility's stated 5- and 10-year Water Conservation Plan goals — if the cone sits below a marker, the goal is within reach.

5-year WCP goal (2030)Close

Target is 116 GPCD. Current trajectory projects 117 GPCD by 2030 — 1 GPCD short — within reach with sustained effort.

10-year WCP goal (2035)Close

Target is 113 GPCD. Current trajectory projects 116 GPCD by 2035 — 3 GPCD short — within reach with sustained effort.

Why peak-day demand matters

City of Pearland averages 120 GPCD, but the system must be sized for a peak day of roughly 218 GPCD (reported). That 98-GPCD gap is what drives infrastructure sizing — pumps, storage, treatment capacity, and wholesale contract peaks are all built for the hottest day in August, not the annual average. This dimension is absent from most statewide demand visualizations.

Ask Claude about this data

Grounded in City of Pearland's actual numbers

Try asking

Claude answers using this utility's real Water Conservation Plan Annual Report metrics, conservation plan goals, and program activity — not generic advice.

Methodology

Peak-day GPCD: City of Pearland uses its actual reported peak-day per-capita figure (218 GPCD) from the Houston WWCP deployment. Historical and projected peak values apply the implied 1.81× peaking factor to each year's average.

Projection: Central projection continues the utility's historical GPCD trend (-1.67 GPCD/year), dampened over time to reflect the diminishing returns of conservation as a system approaches efficient use. The shaded cone widens with the projection horizon, scaled by the utility's historical year-over-year volatility.

Goal markers: The ◆ markers show the utility's stated 5-year and 10-year Water Conservation Plan total-GPCD goals. Green = the projected trajectory meets the goal; red = the trajectory misses it. Goal-gap cards below the chart quantify the difference.

Baseline: The dashed grey line marks the utility's conservation program baseline GPCD — the reference point from which savings are measured.

Production ingests each utility's reported GPCD and peak-day records directly from Water Conservation Plan Annual Report submissions and platform meter data.